The United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA) released its updated forecast for the global economy in 2025.

According to the report, global GDP growth is expected at 2.5% for the year (down from 2.8% in the January 2025 forecast), with growth projected at 2.8% in 2026. For comparison, the average growth rate between 2010 and 2019 was 3.2%. While world trade accelerated in the first quarter of 2025 (up to 4.5%), by May it had slowed to 3.5%, and rising tariff restrictions in the United States (up to 18%) are increasing the risk of further decline.

The slowdown is uneven across regions. For the United States, GDP is expected to grow by just 1.6% in 2025 due to rising trade protectionism. The euro area remains stagnant with growth forecast at 1.2%, constrained by high energy prices and weak investment. China is projected to expand by 4.9%, supported by domestic demand and stimulus measures. India continues to serve as a growth driver among emerging economies, with a forecast of 6.3% driven by investment and consumption. Russia is expected to post modest growth of 1.1%, limited by structural factors and sanctions pressure.

For developing economies, tighter financial conditions, declining investment, and weaker export revenues represent the greatest risks. Fiscal constraints, combined with rising inflationary pressures, heighten the likelihood of debt distress and socio-economic instability.