IMF experts predict a decline in global economic growth from 3.5% in 2022 to 3.0% in 2023–2024.
Despite an improved economic outlook compared to April 2023, annual averages remain below the 2000-2019 figures of 3.8%. The best economic dynamics was recorded in the developing countries of the Asian region: from 4.5% in 2022 to 5.3% in 2023.
Global average inflation is expected to decline from 8.7% in 2022 to 6.8% in 2023 and 5.2% in 2024. Global trade growth will slow from 5.2% in 2022 to 2% in 2023 and then increase to 3.7% in 2024 (4.9% in 2000–2019). The main factors of weakening demand are the increase in the share of domestic services, the volatility of the US dollar, as well as the growth of trade barriers.
Raising the US debt ceiling reduced the immediate risks of financial sector shocks. Among the main risks for the global economy are:
- Rising inflation due to high uncertainty in the labor market, the long-term impact of the depreciation of the exchange rate and the food crisis
- Deterioration of external financial conditions - as a result, the tightening of the national monetary policy, the increase in interest rates and the fall in asset prices
- Slowdown in economic growth in China, due to the downturn in the real estate market and the tightening of fiscal policy
- Strengthening of the debt crisis in developing countries